College Football - Preseason Top 10

After 23 years of life, I have learned very little about this universe. The only truths I can assert relate to my subjective conceptions of my surroundings, and among these truths is my belief that the month of July disappears more quickly than any other. As such, it is high time that I thrust myself into the unscientific science - nay, the timeless ART - of predicting the results of the approaching college football season. Thus, before even the first, echoing crash of shoulder pads, I offer up to the world my preseason rankings of the top 10 teams (a top 25 would reek far too heavily of random speculation; considering the wide-open nature of the upcoming season, trying to come up with a legitimate top TEN seems difficult enough).

And the NUMBER ONE TEAM is...........




1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Why? Most preseason publications have Notre Dame ranked anywhere from #3-#18, a fact that confounds the bloody hell out of me. I admit that my Roman Catholic heritage has imbued in my collective unconscious an uncontrollable, albeit marginal, affection for the navy and gold, but there exists more than enough evidence to warrant this ranking. In fact, I can't think of any other team I'd even consider for this position; the Irish have an offensive genius (Weis)coaching the nation's best quarterback, the physically prolific and statistically efficient Brady Quinn (3900 yd., 32 TDS, 7 INT in 2005). They return their best WR in All-American Jeff Samardzija, and though the losses of WR Maurice Stovall and TE Anthony Fasano will hurt, WR Rhema McKnight has been granted a fifth year of eligibility after suffering an injury in the Michigan game that robbed him of ten games last season. McKnight had led ND in receiving the two previous years. Also, steady, underrated RB Darius Walker returns. He rushed for only 1,200 yards last season, but caught 43 passes in Weis's air-heavy attack.
Notre Dame's defense was much-maligned a year ago, but nine starters return. If its chemistry can compensate for a lack of physical talent, they can hold teams just enough to allow their offensive stars to light up the scoreboard. My favorite non U-M player, S Tom Zbikowski returns. He's flat-out badass. Period. Women reading this blog: run, don't walk, to South Bend and demand to have his children. I don't care how dumb he might be.
Unfortunately, the ND schedule is brutal, featuring six teams who played in bowl games last year. With Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and USC on the schedule, a national title game berth is highly unlikely. I expect two regular season losses.
I have Notre Dame ranked number one, but they will NOT finish the season here. They've simply earned this spot...for now.

2) Ohio State Buckeyes - Were I to express my true sentiments, U-M would be here. Yet, in light of last year's 7-5 debacle, such a ranking would compromise my ethos, pathos, and logos, and as a new blogger, establishing these takes precedent over stroking myself. So, instead, I humbly follow the lead of pundits everywhere and place the Bucks at number two. They return a Poor-Man's Vince Young in Troy Smith, a man who loves pressure and has owned the Wolverines in his past two starts. They return Ted Ginn, Jr., an early Heisman candidate who threatens to score everytime he touches the ball, but lacks the route-running skills to consistently get his hands on it outside of the return game. They also return Antonio Pittman, a slashing RB who fits Tressel's spread-option offense very well, knifing competently through large holes on draw after draw. Should Smith go down, making a more traditional offense imperative, freshman phenom Chris Wells, a big-back built for pro-sets out of the I, could supplant Pittman as the go-to RB.
Yet, for all of these offensive returns, the defensive losses will be devastating. The Buckeyes vaunted defense has lost NINE starters, four of whom were drafted in the FIRST ROUND of April's NFL draft. Those starters had been the cornerstone of the Bucks for the past 2-4 seasons. A.J. Hawk, Nate Salley, Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, Bobby Carpenter, blah blah blah on and on. While last year's offense was often electric, it was given gads of opportunities thanks to the countless three-and-outs forced by that D. This year, running on the Bucks should be far easier than it has been in half a decade. So should passing, for that matter. They lose Santonio Holmes, for whom they have no viable replacement. Thus, Ginn will have to shoulder the load as a No. 1 receiver, something he's never proven he can do. If he can become a talent on the level of Dwayne Jarrett and Braylon Edwards, OSU might stake a claim to an undefeated season. But in my opinion, he can't. The Buckeyes lose in the 'shoe to the Wolverines, and they possibly lose to Texas in Austin. I might not count out another Big 10 loss, and if it happens, it will probably be at the hands of Michigan State, a team against whom the Bucks have struggled in the past. I'm thinking 9-2...

3. West Virginia Mountaineers
Do I think that, on talent, the Mountaineers are the third best team in the nation. Of course not, despite the fact that they return Pat White, the heir apparent to Vince Young/Troy Smith vein of QBs, and Steve Slaton, a slick sophmore RB who had stud numbers as a freshman. Furthermore, their offensive line returns intact. Yet, West Virginia's greatest asset remains their patsy Big East schedule...the finest team (and when I say fine, I mean Top 25) they will face is Louisville...
This team has a better chance than either ND or OSU to finish undefeated; the only question is whether human rankings will appreciate their schedule enough to place them ahead of a one-loss team from the Big 10/SEC/Big 12/ACC in the polls...I personally would HOPE that they will not...

4. Michigan Wolverines
I wish I didn't have to do this, but a lack of other viable options combined with my bias makes this pick inevitable. After the top 3 schools, the field is wide open. In fact, numbers 4-10 are essentially interchangeable. However, Michigan gets the nod for two reasons. 1) They return the entire core of their team from a year ago, nay, even two years ago... 2) I love them, and this is my poll, bitches. Henne returns for his third year at the helm. He's coming off an erratic season, but one that saw him maintain a high number of passing touchdowns (23) and cut down on his interceptions (8). The backfield is deep - perhaps the deepest in the nation now that Ramonce Taylor has decided to leave Texas - and if Mike Hart is healthy, this offense will score over 30 points a game. Sophomore Kevin Grady, U-M's most ballyhooed recruit in years, has shed 15 pounds from his weight from last year, one in which he filled in "decently" for Hart. He provides the hammer in short yardage situations; he needs to improve his patience in finding a hole, but when he gets into the secondary, he RUMBLES. Finally, freshman Carlos Brown will serve as the Wolverines change-of-pace speedback, and will also take over the "running QB" position manned by Antonio Bass last season (Bass, who would have been a sophomore this season, is out for the year with a knee injury and will likely force him to redshirt; unfortunately, Lloyd Carr recently intimated that nerve damage might mean this amazing physical talent's career might be over). At receiver, senior Steve Breaston returns to try once more to prove himself as a number one receiver, but I'm guessing that sophomore Mario Manningham will claim that title. Of course, Breaston will still provide 2-5 TDs in the return game, per usual. The offensive line returns 3 full-time starters from a year ago, but because of last year's rash of injuries, six current linemen have started games, including likely first team All-American Jake Long. If this offense can stay healthy (a year ago, it couldn't), expect the national title contention expected from this squad in 2005 to show up a year late.
As maligned as the defense was, it still finished third in the Big Ten behind the uber-squads at Ohio State and Penn State. The team suffered no substantial losses, NO apologies to overrated DT Gabe Watson (4th round to Arizona), the only defensive Michigan player to be picked in the 2005 draft. This same squad is a year older and a year stronger. Yet, the greatest reason to expect improvement centers on the hiring of Ron English as Defensive Coordinator. A brilliant young motivator, English was initially lured away from his assistant coaching position by the Chicago Bears (hired as DBs coach). However, realizing his potential, Lloyd Carr fired long-time borderline butt-buddy Jim Hermann and offered English the coordinator position. (BTW, in spite of my last sentence, I consider Lloyd Carr a demi-god of masculinity and coaching...heyeahh!) English is known as a fiery martinet. Whenever Carr retires, expect English to be his replacement. I'm calling it now. Despite overtures from the NFL, Lamarr Woodley returns healthy, coming off a year in which he played well, but could only contribute in 6 games because of injuries. The secondary is loaded, with Preseason Playboy All-American Leon Hall holding down one corner, and a whopping 5(!) safeties with more than five starts over their careers returning (again, injuries made this possible- are you starting to understand why those 5 losses were deceptive?) The lone question mark, one that makes Jai Eugene's decommittal even more devastating, is the other corner spot. If either young talents Charles Stewart (soph.), Jimmy Sears (redshirt freshman), or Morgan Trent (sophomore, freshman All-Big Ten first team a year ago) can fill it adequately, this defense could be special.
At linebacker, All-Big Ten performers Dave Harris and Prescott Burgess return, and though Burgess has been ranked by Mel Kiper, Jr. as one of the top outside LB NFL prospects, it appears that superathlete sophomore Shawn Crable dominated so thoroughly in the spring that Burgess will now have to fight his way off the bench. Expect a lot of 3-4 sets, with Crable manning up with a tight end in passing situations.
Garrett Rivas, a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award a year ago, returns at kicker, and sophomore Zoltan Mesko, a highly rated recruit from CA who averaged 48(!) yds. per punt as a high school senior, will hopefully take over punting duties.
All in all, 8 starters return on offense, including Heisman candidates Chad Henne (unlikely outside of a Brady Quinn-like breakout and a one-loss record) and Mike Hart (not at all inconceivable if he remains healthy). On defense, 8 starters return. The fact remains that the only substantial loss from a year ago is WR Jason Avant. No one should doubt Michigan's talent. However, everyone has reason to doubt their durability and their ability to play to potential, and with good reason. If the team can remain healthy, they deserve this ranking. If Hart's health falters, expect a 3 loss season. If Henne goes down, God forbid(no viable backup), expect a 4 loss season. Two years ago, I proclaimed 2006 as the year of the Wolverine; if they can upset ND in South Bend during the third week of the season, expect them to be undefeated, or having one-loss when they face the Buckeyes in C-bus. The winner will likely be not only the Big Ten champion, but might also earn a national title berth, even if they have a previous loss. Worst Case scenario (with only an average amount of injuries) - 3 loss season...Best Case? - You know.

From here on out, my knowledge of the teams falters a bit, and I can't offer much insight beyond that which you can get from any other preseason publication...as such, I'm just gonna list 'em with a couple quick hitters...

5. Texas - The ground game should be stellar thanks to an always solid OL and a bevy of backs (Ramonce Taylor's departure notwithstanding)...As such, I think this team runs all over OSU in Austin, giving it a chance to hang offensively with Smith, Ginn, etc., and, thus, a chance to win. The Big 12, save for a date with Oklahoma, should be mere football fodder for the Longhorns...
Expect two losses, one against either OU or OSU, and one that results from a devastatingly poor performance by the first-year QB's against an average team.
UPDATE: DUE TO THE RHETT BOMAR DEBACLE, TEXAS'S CHANCES TO REPEAT JUST BECAME A LOT BETTER...but they still aren't moving up...

6. Florida - This year's best team out of the nation's best conference...Urban Meyer will make some strides this year, Chris Leak will redeem himself, and this team will escape its brutal schedule with no more than three losses. Three losses!! What is this team doing at number 6 then?! Oh yeah, their schedule is THAT brutal...at one point they play Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida State in succession. Holy Shit.

7. Auburn - Kenny Irons is superb, and if a young QB/WR corps can get the job done, this team will be good again. God Bless Ignorers of Academics...

8. LSU - Three SEC teams in a row? I don't care...that 40-3 drubbing of Miami was stellar, and I'm big on predicting success on the previous year's bowl game, so long as teams return players. Joseph Addai is a big loss, however.

9. Oklahoma - Adrien Peterson brings sexyback this year, as Bomar proves he is neither physically nor mentally handicapped as once suspected...he just seems that way after being battered to all hell thanks to the ineptitude of a shitty OL that I think will be improved in '06...not that that's saying much...

UPDATE: BOMAR AND A SOPHOMORE STARTING OFFENSIVE LINEMAN HAVE JUST BEEN DISMISSED FROM THE OU PROGRAM PERMANENTLY!!! THIS DROPS THEM FROM THE TOP 10, and perhaps the TOP 20!!

10. USC...They'll finish this high because of a weak PAC-10 schedule...but I really only ranked them here so that I'd have the opportunity to thank God for three things:
1. Graduation.
2. Early Entry for Juniors.
3. Allowing me to spend time (platonically)with a USC cheerleader for a
few days/nights. She was such a nice girl, and, oh, yeah, she was a
USC cheerleader!

Please assault my list...Let's get some discussion going!